Baseline first
Every model competes with climatology, historical mean and simpler statistical baselines.
AgriAI Forecast
Predictions as distributions—not false precision.
YieldNow and regional forecasts expose intervals, drivers, validation cohort, training cutoff and what evidence would most improve confidence.YIELDNOW · WHEAT · DEMO
Illustrative bushels per acre · not a production forecastWHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND?
Show the model what it is missing.
- Current interval
- 49—65 bu/ac
- Main negative driver
- Rainfall deficit since flowering
- Main uncertainty
- No verified phenology observation
- Best next measurement
- Flowering-stage confirmation or scout photo
- Model record
- YieldNow Wheat v1.7 demo
Calibrate intervals
Uncertainty is tested by geography, crop, season and forecast horizon—not added as decoration.
Preserve history
Predictions are never overwritten, so July and August revisions can be compared with measured outcomes.
Know the boundary
An anomaly triggers scouting. It does not automatically assert disease or prescribe treatment.
Build your evidence layer